Dr. Christopher Nowotarski, assistant professor in the Texas A&M University Department of Atmospheric Sciences, recently received a $406,335 National Weather Service Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research (CSTAR) grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to analyze tornadoes occuring in the outer rainbands of tropical storms and hurricanes. The 3-year study will begin June 1.

Nowotarski will be working with Dr. Matthias Katzfuß, associate professor in the Texas A&M University Department of Statistics, and several National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters across the Gulf Coast region and in Puerto Rico. The research team will work to advance the understanding of landfalling tropical cyclone tornadic cell attributes and associated environments by focusing on differences between verified tornado warnings and false alarms.

Additionally, this project will seek to improve the operational forecasting and warning decision process by integrating observed cell attributes and modeled near-cell environments.

“This is a collaborative project with local NWS forecasters and the Storm Prediction Center investigating tornadoes that form in the outer rainbands of tropical cyclones as they make landfall, including the 52 tornadoes spawned by Hurricane Harvey,” said Nowotarski.

“This is a challenging forecast problem and false alarm rates are usually very high, because these tornadoes and their parent storm cells develop very quickly, often displaying very subtle characteristics, and forecasters are juggling many other hazards including high winds, flooding, and storm surge. This project will help forecasters correctly and more rapidly identify potentially tornadic cells in future tropical cyclones.”

By Kevin Smalley